Newsletter (copy 31)

China's emissions have already peaked 🌏

May 29, 2024

Happy Wednesday, dear reader.

Some good news to kick things off:

  • Petrol and diesel models accounted for less than half of new car sales in Europe in April, according to carmaker association ACEA.

  • Wind power has usurped gas as the UK’s biggest source of electricity.

  • Renewables and nuclear generated 49.4% of America’s electricity in March.

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Nick Hedley

Editor, The Progress Playbook

New data suggests that China’s carbon dioxide emissions peaked in 2023 and will start declining from this year onwards, two separate analyses have found.

First, modelling by BloombergNEF found that China will likely add more than enough wind and solar capacity this year to cover electricity demand growth and push coal output lower. Along with lower fossil fuel demand in Europe, this could result in global emissions falling as much as 2.5% in 2024.

Then in late May, an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) came to the same conclusion, citing recent data releases.

After temporarily rebounding in the wake of Covid-19 lockdowns, China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 3% in March thanks to the renewables boom and slowdown in the property sector, which reduced demand for steel and cement.

This trend was likely maintained through April as well, reinforcing the view that peak emissions are now in the rearview mirror, Myllyvirta says.

- Read the full story here.

Cape Town’s iconic V&A Waterfront has installed several mini wind turbines to help the precinct reduce its reliance on diesel generators, and to gauge the viability of a wider roll out.

- Read the full story here.

To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming to safe levels, clean energy investments in emerging economies must triple to about $2.8 trillion a year by 2030. This far surpasses the capacity of public sector financing alone, meaning the private sector needs to play an important role.

However, the perceived risk of emerging market infrastructure projects makes attracting private capital a challenge. Blended finance overcomes this barrier, writes Andrew Johnstone, CEO of Climate Fund Managers.

- Read the full story here.

In 2014, China sold around 75,000 electric vehicles and hybrids, and exported about 533,000 cars.

Fast forward to 2024, and China has become the world’s largest auto market and sells more electrified vehicles than any other country, with 9.5 million cars delivered last year. It also controls the majority of the battery supply chain. Homegrown champion BYD dethroned Volkswagen to become the best-selling brand in China and in the last quarter of 2023, surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest producer of EVs.

California, the world’s fifth-largest economy, now regularly generates more renewable energy than it needs, data from the system operator shows.

Standout stats: On 77 of the 83 days to May 28, the US state saw periods where wind, solar and hydro output exceeded total electricity demand.

On May 25, renewable energy generation — mainly from solar panels — eclipsed electricity demand for 10 straight hours and exceeded consumption by 51.6% at one point.

And during the peak demand period on May 17, another milestone was hit when big batteries discharged 7.5GW of instantaneous power into the grid, covering 28% of the state’s electricity supply.

- Read the full story here.

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